Nuclear war as a predictable surprise

نویسندگان

چکیده

Like asteroids, hundred-year floods and pandemic disease, thermonuclear war is a low-frequency, high-impact threat. In the long run, catastrophe inevitable if nothing done − yet each successive government generation may fail to address it. Drawing on risk perception research, this paper argues that psychological biases cause threat of nuclear receive less attention than it deserves. Nuclear deterrence is, moreover, ‘front-loaded good’: its benefits accrue disproportionately proximate generations, whereas much expected cost will be borne in distant future. Recent surveys indicate US Russian publics assign surprisingly high likelihood war. Nevertheless, earlier research suggests probably not believed just around corner. This, along with absence easy solutions, encourages governments give priority more pressing concerns. The danger pattern continue clear up point arrives.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Global Policy

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1758-5880', '1758-5899']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13142